Ranking Tennessee’s 2025 Opponents From Easiest To Toughest

By Cody McClure

Today is May 6th. Seis de Mayo. How was the Mariachi band?

Did you go out last night? Are you sitting on your couch nursing a hangover? You are, aren’t you? Look behind you. It’s me.

Anyway.

I’m not saying it’s officially “list season” just yet but as the weather continues to get warmer and we move closer to football season, you’ll be seeing more of these types of articles on the internet.

College basketball has ended. Spring practice has ended. The transfer portal news is dying down.

We’re now in the thick of baseball season, which has been a bright spot in East Tennessee the past few years. Though things aren’t going all that well right now for the Vols.

Soon it will be time to turn up the intensity on offseason football talk. First it will be list season. Then magazine season. Then media days. Then fall camp. Then fantasy drafts.

And boom. Before you know it, Labor Day weekend. You know how the calendar goes.

Let’s get list season started by looking at Tennessee’s schedule.

Here’s an early ranking of our opponents from easiest to toughest. I have listed my metric percentage chance Tennessee has to win. It is a very important and possibly accurate percentage I have created in my head.

1. ETSU — Sept. 6 (100%)

This is a win. Nothing to say.

2. New Mexico State — Nov. 15 (100%)

Another win.

3. UAB — Sept. 20 (100%)

Perhaps slightly more difficult but another win.

4. @ Mississippi State — Sept. 27 (90%)

We’ve surpassed the 100 percent guaranteed win category but this one should be at about 90 percent in favor of the Vols. The Bulldogs have a poverty program these days. Last season they were winless in the SEC at 0-8 and 2-10 overall. They have taken Vanderbilt’s place for being worst of the worst in the SEC. I don’t imagine much will change over this offseason. They get a 10 percent chance to win just because the game is played in Starkville.

5. Vanderbilt — Nov. 29 (88%)

The Commodores turned the corner last year in terms of having a competitive program. As in a program that doesn’t get absolutely destroyed in every game. That kind of competitive. Not actually competitive. But Diego Pavia is a nice little quarterback who will keep them in some games. You’re not just going to be able to roll the ball out there and win vs. Vandy anymore. Gotta at least suit up and play. My detailed metrics give UT an 88 percent chance to win this game. Last game of the year at home. The seniors will play with pride and there’s little chance that little brother pulls an upset.

6. Syracuse — Aug. 30 in Atlanta (79%)

If the Vols are not 5-for-5 with wins in the games mentioned above I will call for the firing of Josh Heupel. Those are five games with absolutely no excuses for poor performance. Now we find ourselves in potential swing game territory. Personally, I don’t think these next three should be swing games based on talent differential but Tennessee is facing a weird battle now with a brand new quarterback who won’t have much time to learn the system. And these next three teams are frisky enough. This is game number one on the schedule. I don’t think it’s going to be easy. The Vols will win but Syracuse is going to have some moments. Think NC State first half last year. Still, Tennessee doesn’t lose these types of games against the ACC. Except that one time vs. Pitt. Vols by two scores.

7. Arkansas — Oct. 11 (77%)

Redemption. That’s really all this is about. Think South Carolina 2022 and 2023. The boys will be fired up to take the field against the Hogs and avenge last season’s inexcusable loss in Fayetteville. The crowd will be excited to be at this game, as it is the second big home game of the year. Post-Georgia. More affordable to attend. Coming off a bye week. It will be a nice tailgating weekend. Hopefully by October 11th, the weather will feel more like fall. Vibes will be just right in this one. Arkansas has no business coming into Neyland Stadium and winning. Sam Pittman’s seat will be on fire by this point as the Razorbacks will already have two losses to Ole Miss and Notre Dame. And maybe Memphis.

8. @ Kentucky — Oct. 25 (71%)

Perhaps I’m giving Kentucky more respect than they deserve coming off a 4-8 season. Big Blue Nation has to be nearly sick of Mark Stoops at this point, as it’s clear he has peaked in Lexington. The ‘Cats haven’t won more than seven games in a season in four years. Stoops is a pitiful 28-62 in league play since his first season in 2013. There’s just not a lot to be excited about, thus I don’t expect the crowd to be much of an issue. The problem is, Tennessee has had notable struggles on the road under the tenure of Josh Heupel. There always seems to be an inexcusable loss or two (Carolina ‘22, Florida ‘23, Mizzou ‘23, Arkansas ‘24, etc. etc.). This would be an inexcusable road loss. Tennessee should absolutely win, but I believe it will be more of a challenge than we anticipate. The Vols will be coming off a road game at Alabama one week prior. This one could be the difference in 8-4 vs. 9-3. Or 7-5 vs. 8-4 depending on where your expectations lie.

9. Oklahoma — Nov. 1 (62%)

The biggest home game of the year that’s not Georgia. It will be the ninth game on the schedule. That’s an intriguing place for it to be to me. October is going to be critical for Tennessee in terms of how fans feel going into the final third of the schedule. In the first third you’re looking at a likely 3-1 with a loss to Georgia and wins over Syracuse, ETSU, and UAB. Fans will still be in a pretty good place. But the second third — at Mississippi State, Arkansas, at Alabama, and at Kentucky — will be huge in terms of morale. A record of 3-1, likely with a loss at Bama, should be acceptable over that stretch but a dropped game to any of those other squads will be depressing. The crowd for a 6-2 UT vs. Oklahoma as opposed to a 5-3 UT vs. Oklahoma seems like a big difference. OU invested in its team over the offseason and has a talented quarterback coming in in John Mateer, who may end up as one of the SEC’s best QBs. I’m giving the edge to Tennessee. The crowd should make a difference, and the players will be motivated to win it for Heupel like last year. But make no mistake, this is a swing game.

10. @ Florida — Nov. 22 (49%)

The most important game on the schedule, as I see it. Tennessee could roll into Gainesville with a record as good as 8-2. It could be as bad as 6-4. Florida may not be any better than 6-4 given their absolutely brutal schedule. To me, this game matters a lot in terms of the future outlook of the program. A great coach would beat this Florida team. A good coach would beat this Florida team if he had stability at quarterback. We’ll know what we’ve got in terms of the quarterback by November 22nd. Heupel could really use an undefeated November to carry momentum into the offseason. Just think, if the last good win of the year is against Oklahoma at home — something we mostly expect to happen — but then you get YET ANOTHER road loss to Florida (Vols haven’t won at Florida since 2003) sandwiched between ho-hum wins against New Mexico State and Vandy, how good are fans really going to feel? It will be a year where even if you end up 9-3 in the best-case scenario you still didn’t beat any of your rivals. How much momentum would you really have going into the offseason? Would a bowl win make up for another loss at Florida? The alternative of course… you beat Florida to clinch a playoff bid. Back-to-back 10-2 seasons when nobody expected it. Talk about vibes.

11. @ Alabama — Oct. 18 (40%)

I’m penciling this one in as a loss. As I said above, this year comes down to the Florida game for me. And Oklahoma. If you win the games you’re supposed to win and then manage to go 2-0 in the swing games against the Gators and Sooners it could feel like a special season. I’m trying to be realistic here, and while I don’t think it’s out of reach by any means that Tennessee could go into Tuscaloosa and beat a team not coached by Nick Saban, it doesn’t seem like this will be the Tennessee team to finally win at Alabama for the first time in 20 years. Picking this team to be able to go 11-1 would feel reckless. So this is likely an L. And it should be one we can handle as a fan base. The Vols will be going up against a Bama team still loaded with top-end talent. There will be no shame in dropping this one, albeit not being against Saban. The Tide has enough talent to beat Tennessee. I don’t think Kalen DeBoer will end up working out at Alabama. In fact, I think he’ll end up with a losing record to Heupel, but I’m punting on Alabama this year. Maybe that makes me a loser. IDK. I’d be elated with 10-2 given our current predicament.

12. Georgia — Sept. 13 (28%)

So we’ve pretty much settled in here at 10-2 being the ceiling and 7-5 being the floor. I think that’s where most of the fan base is at. Sometimes the difference in those two records is just a handful of plays. I simply don’t know yet if I think Tennessee will lean closer to seven wins or closer to ten wins. I’m not a huge fan of what I’ve seen on tape from Joey Aguilar at quarterback, but I’m giving Heupel the benefit of the doubt on figuring out the situation. If he does that, I’ll have a lot more optimism. Kentucky and Arkansas won’t be opponents that make me nervous if we have a serviceable QB. But if Aguilar comes out looking like Nathan Peterman, we could be in for a long ride. Nonetheless, no one should realistically expect Aguilar and the Vols to beat arguably college football’s best program in Week 3. The Georgia game comes early this year, and while it will be an exciting weekend for the biggest home game of the year, I’d be pretty shocked to see Tennessee win it while breaking in a brand new quarterback to the SEC. We all want to beat the ‘Dawgs. It’s the only thing Heupel hasn’t done in terms of the regular season. With a returning starter at QB, this might be his best opportunity to do it. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.