Optimistic, Pessimistic, Realistic: How Tennessee Beats Mississippi State

Image: Ryan Beatty/Tennessee Athletics

By Cody McClure

How am I feeling about Tennessee’s game at Mississippi State tomorrow, you ask?

(no one asked)

Well, I have two hands. And on one of them, I feel optimism. On the other, I feel pessimism.

I believe my optimistic hand is currently outweighing its pessimistic counterpart but they’re both there hanging side-by-side.

Tennessee has the better football team.

Better coach. Better quarterback. Better running game. Better players on defense. Better depth.

It should be a recipe for success in most every way college football is measured.

But to Mississippi State’s advantage, it will have the home crowd. And it should have a locker room full of guys feeling pretty confident after a 4-0 start.

And there’s that whole thing about Josh Heupel on the road in the SEC.

Offensively, coach Jeff Lebby uses an up-tempo approach similar to what Tennessee does under Heupel.

State currently has an average offense ranking smack dab in the middle of the pack in the SEC.

They’re a little better at running the ball behind their big offensive line than they are throwing it, but the offense is pretty balanced.

Where it stands out is in the red zone. State is No. 1 in the conference in red zone conversions. A perfect 16-for-16 with 13 touchdowns to three field goals.

Why could this be significant?

Tennessee’s defense ranks next to last in the SEC in red zone scoring percentage. Not good at all.

Through four games, the Vols have allowed 10 red zone touchdowns. We are the only SEC team to allow double-digit redzone TDs to this point in the season.

I’m OK with a bend-don’t-break defense, but thus far we’ve been doing our fair amount of breaking.

Now, several of those touchdowns allowed have been in garbage time. That’s worth pointing out.

And the defense should be getting healthier this week with the return of Jaxson Moi at defensive tackle.

Nonetheless, the red zone woes are still part of my cause for concern.

Another cause for concern is our pass defense, which ranks DEAD LAST in the SEC. We are allowing 279 yards per game through the air.

279!

Interestingly enough, 279 is also the number of passing yards that State QB Blake Shapen had in the Bulldogs’ impressive win over Arizona State.

So you might say, that pessimistically, I’m slightly concerned about our defense getting torched through the air.

But where my pessimism comes into play for the boys defensively, I have equal to greater optimism about our offense.

I have full confidence in the Big Orange being able to do pretty much whatever we want on offense.

And that, in my opinion, will be the difference in the game.

I’m not worried at all about Joey Aguilar making his first road start in the SEC. Mark my words — he’s going to go into Starkville and play very well.

Our receivers will be ready to go, too. And you can bet your ass that offensive line will be ready to push State around and make way for a dominant rushing attack.

As you may have already read or heard this week, Arizona State ran for over 250 yards on the Bulldogs’ defense.

Tennessee should be able to run the football, no problem, and that will keep things open for Joey in the passing attack.

We will move the ball, and we will score. The only issue I can see the offense having is with penalties.

Heupel’s teams have been notably undisciplined when it comes to committing penalties on the road, and I’d like to see that change. But even if it doesn’t, I think this offense will be able to overcome the whistles and score maybe not at will, but close to it.

State hasn’t seen anything close to what Tennessee has offensively.

To conclude, I see three scenarios in my head for this game.

The Pessimistic — State carves up our defense and converts on every red zone trip while our offense stays stuck in the mud with penalties and mistakes. This leads to a home upset win for State and weeks of talk about how Heupel just stinks on the road. Our playoff chances are on life support.

The Optimistic — A healthier Tennessee defense finally shows up and shuts down State completely. We show the Bulldogs what an SEC team with real depth looks like and remind them that they’re still Mississippi State and haven’t truly improved from last season’s last place finish. Joey has a Heisman-like outing and the Vols absolutely steamroll these boys like 52-10.

The Realistic — The over hits with ease. Tennessee’s defense continues to give up more points than we like to see and we’re in a bit of a game in the third quarter. Shapen isn’t carving us up in this scenario, but he’s keeping State within striking distance. Ultimately, Lebby just can’t out-offense Heupel. The UT running game moves the ball at will and Joey makes Joey-like plays. Tennessee closes it out 41-30.